Thursday, July 19, 2007

A Very Important Reason A Democrat needs to win in 2008

This article outlines a very important reason a Democrat needs to win in 2008: The Supreme Court. Right now, the next three most likely retirees from the court are all in the "liberal" (really centrist) wing of the court. Unfortunately that means that, at best, a centrist would be replaced with a centrist, still leaving a lot of bad 5-4 majorities out there.

But at worst, this means that if the GOP gets the White House in any of the next three elections, we could see a shift from 6-3 down to even 8-1 on the court with the wingnut right taking completely over. All bets are off then. Though I still think that Roe would not be overturned simply because the GOP is VERY good at political calculations of that order and it would be VERY bad for the GOP if Roe were overturned.

Still, this is a very important thing to keep in mind. There is far more at stake than just Roe.


armagh444 said...

Given the events of the last six years, I would say that you're giving the GOP entirely too much credit.

DBB said...

No, there is one thing they are VERY good at - well, two things, but they are related - PR and doing very calculated moves to win elections (that really don't do much in the way of actual competent governance). That's been the problem - they are so good at getting elected and totally controlling the media discussion of any issue that they can win election after election despite total incompetence at governing. It took 12 years for the hollow PR shell to finally collapse in on itself - all shine, no substance - because the shell was so well made.

That's what worries me sometimes - that the Dems are so bad at PR and electioneering that the uneveness makes for some lopsided outcomes - the GOP had to screw things up REALLY BAD for their PR to start to not be enough to win elections despite their incompetence.

I don't overestimate the GOP ability to govern - but I credit them for being masters of electoral manipulation.

ballgame said...

It's not that the GOP is talented at PR, it's just that they get lots and lots of help from the "referees".

This, for example, should be breaking news in the MSM. If it's not the lead story tomorrow, we're in even more serious trouble than we thought.

DBB said...

That referee help is not an accident - sure, it is partly because the MSM is way too cozy with those in power and too cheap/lazy to really investigate government claims most of the time - but a lot of what does get reported comes straight from the AEI and other GOP think tanks that are then very efficiently distributed to all GOP pols within hours - so they all have the identical talking points that the MSM then adopts. There is no equivalent network on the other side. A good book to read about this is 'All the President's Spin' - I highly recommend it. There is a web page on it as well, spinsanity, though it is now defunct (the authors moved on to other projects), the archives are still there.